Notes from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke
8th Nov 18
Few things I learned or loved from today reading:
- Getting to know John von Neumann - the Father of Game Theory.
- Chess is not the game of life. Poker is. Life is full of uncertain event, hidden variables.
- Need to start loving uncertain events.
- Separated between "Resulting" and "Decision making". A good decision can get a bad result. People tend to use the result to evaluate the original decision. Learn how to focus purely on the decision making process.
*An interesting example: Before the last America vote, complex statistic show 70% Hillary Clinton would win, 30% Trump. If you bet on Clinton, was it a good decision? ( ignore the fact that Trump won in the end)
11 Nov 18
- Self-serving bias: Quick to claim the credit if the good result, blame bad luck if bad result. However, this bias is in opposite direction toward others. This lead to:
- Important to build a habit to break this loop:
- Probability thinking
13 Nov 18
- Remember to put probability when calculating expected value. i.e The grant is $1000, and the prop to win around 25%, so the expected value of the grant ought to be 0.25*1000 = $25
22 Nov 18
Keep a look out when hearing:
* I knew it
* I am certainly ...
* I am 100% on ...
Bias turn on and we are far away from true seeking direction