Notes from Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard Marks
First read start Oct 2018
- Need to study finance history
- Watch out for other behaviors toward risk: Are they risk tolerance or risk aversion? The former indicates "Upcycle".
- It is not what you Buy, what you Pay for is matter the most to your expected return.
- Learn to identify where you stand in the cycle.
1. Credit cycle
To understand more, watch Ray Dalio 30 minutes video - How economic machine works
The long lead time factor.